Will online ad spend in China be 1% or 5%. Or 6%?

Will the total amount brands spend/t in 2007 on the web in mainland China be US$1.3 billion (says Nielsen) or US$1 billion (says Kaiser Kuo from Ogilvy)?  Or less. Or more. Strange that nobody will ever know. Read even more about it here. 
Will that sum ( which sum do you mean exactly ?) be 5 or 6% of the total market. Or more?
Probably a lot less. Is that total market then all of a sudden only …. US$20 million?
I remember that earlier this year Nielsen said that total advertising spendings were already US$49,5 billion  in 2006 with a 81% market share for TV. Others said it was at almost  US$37 million.
And now this year it will only be US$20? Mmmmmmm...  why should that be?
If it was US$50 last year it will be US$55 this year. Or even US$60.

In that case online is only 1% of the total.  China is a fascinating country when you have to have the figures right.